VFD Group Plc is one of the more actively followed stocks on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). The company has been in the news this year after declaring a 5-for-1 bonus issue and a ₦2.50 dividend for FY 2024, which significantly affected how its share price trades. Below is a full breakdown of where things stand, what the charts and numbers are saying, and practical entry and exit ideas for traders and investors.
1. Current Market Data
Last price: about ₦10.90 per share.
52-week range: between ₦5.91 and ₦19.00.
Market cap: roughly ₦82.9 billion.
Shares outstanding: 7.6 billion.
Earnings per share (EPS): ₦1.10.
P/E ratio: around 9.9.
Daily volume: regularly runs into millions of shares, showing strong activity.
2. Technical Picture
Right now, the short-term chart looks a bit weak. Indicators such as the RSI are sitting around mid-40s, and most moving averages are pointing down.
Support levels: ₦10.28 and ₦10.16.
Resistance levels: ₦11.00–₦11.20.
The stock is trading in a sideways range near these levels. Unless it breaks above ₦11.20 with strength, the short-term outlook remains neutral to slightly bearish.
3. Insider & Institutional Flow
The big story this year is the bonus issue and dividend, which caused an adjustment in April. That’s why the stock looks like it “fell” — it was more of a technical markdown.
There have also been insider trades and director dealings in recent months. These don’t always signal a clear buy or sell, but they do tell us management is active and the market reacts to such disclosures.
4. Chart Patterns
Looking at the chart, VFD has been consolidating between ₦9.50 and ₦12.00 since the bonus adjustment. There’s no clear bullish reversal yet. If price manages to stay above ₦11.50, we could see a stronger move up.
5. Elliott Wave Outlook
Because of the bonus share adjustment, Elliott Wave counts are a bit messy. Still, two possibilities exist:
It’s in a correction phase, waiting for the next impulsive move.
Or it has reset after the bonus and is slowly building a new uptrend.
Either way, the key signal to confirm a bullish trend would be a decisive close above ₦11.50–₦12.00.
6. Fundamentals
On the fundamentals, VFD is actually doing well.
H1 2025 profit: ₦5.01 billion, up from ₦2.58 billion last year.
FY 2024 profit: ₦8.69 billion on revenue of ₦87.8 billion.
Management has been busy with asset sales, commercial paper programs, and capital management. Overall, earnings momentum is positive.
7. Forecast (Short, Medium, Long Term)
Short term (days–weeks): Price likely stays between ₦10.30–₦11.20. A break below ₦10.28 could drag it lower; a close above ₦11.20 opens the door to ₦11.50+.
Medium term (1–6 months): If profits continue growing, the stock could recover to ₦15–₦19.
Long term (6–24 months): Neutral to mildly bullish. More upside depends on sustained profit growth.
8. Trade Strategy
Conservative Swing Trade
Entry: Buy only if price closes above ₦11.50.
Stop-loss: ₦10.80.
Targets: ₦13.50 → ₦15.00 → ₦18–19.
Aggressive Range Trade (Short Term)
Long entry: ₦10.40–₦10.55 (near support).
Stop-loss: ₦10.14.
Exit: ₦10.88 → ₦11.20.
9. Conclusion & Key Events to Watch
At the moment, VFD is in a neutral-to-bearish short-term trend, but the fundamentals show improving earnings. The safest strategy is to wait for a confirmed breakout above ₦11.50 before going long. Short-term traders can trade the ₦10.30–₦11.20 range, while aggressive traders can attempt breakdown shorts.
Events that matter going forward:
Upcoming quarterly and half-year results.
Insider trading disclosures (director dealings).
Dividend/bonus share follow-through.
Broader economic news affecting Nigerian financial services.
Final Take:
For investors: Wait for confirmation above ₦11.50 before entering.
For traders: Play the short-term range with tight stops.
Always size your trades carefully — liquidity can be tricky on the NGX.
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