Market snapshot
Price: about ₦7.35 – ₦7.45 (latest tape).
52-week range: ₦4.34 low → ₦8.97 high.
H1 2025 numbers: Profit Before Tax ≈ ₦45.6bn; Profit After Tax ≈ ₦41.8bn — very strong YoY growth.
Dividend: Board declared/paid dividend around July 2025 (₦0.18/share).
Technical picture
Short-term: Cooling off. Price pulled back from ₦8.5–9.0 highs into mid-₦7. Indicators lean “sell/neutral.”
Medium-term: Still bullish. Trend is higher highs and higher lows since ₦4–5 base.
Key levels:
Support: ₦6.40–6.80, deeper at ₦5.00–5.50.
Resistance: ₦8.80–9.00; a breakout above that opens ₦10–12 zone.
Smart money flow
Institutions stepped in around results and dividend qualification.
The ₦5-6.5 area has acted as accumulation, suggesting bigger players reload there.
Patterns & wave count
Current structure looks like a flag/pullback after the rally.
Elliott read: advance from ₦4 → ₦9 looks impulsive; present move is corrective. If ₦6.4 holds, another leg up likely.
Fundamentals
H1 profit surge shows balance between interest and non-interest income.
Dividend signals confidence.
Risks: macro pressure, interest rates, loan quality, Nigerian banking volatility.
Catalysts
Next big triggers: Q3 update, AGM notices, or new corporate actions.
Forecast scenarios
Base case (50%): Break > ₦9 with volume → target ₦10–12 in 1–2 months.
Bear case (30%): Break below ₦6.40 → ₦5.00 test.
Bull case (20%): If macro turns positive + strong buying, quick move to ₦12–15.
Trade setups
A) Momentum breakout
Entry: daily close above ₦9.00 with strong volume.
Stop: ₦7.00.
Targets: ₦10.5 and ₦12.5.
B) Pullback buy
Entry: stagger between ₦7.2–7.4, add at ₦6.8, bigger add ₦6.0–5.5.
Stop: below ₦5.00.
Targets: ₦9.00 → ₦11–12.
Conclusion
Sterling HoldCo is in a healthy uptrend, backed by strong H1 earnings and a dividend. Price is consolidating in mid-₦7s… Bulls need ₦9 breakout to confirm another leg up, while patient buyers can sit on the ₦6-6.5 zone. Risks remain macro and sector-driven, so watch NGX disclosures and liquidity around corporate events.
