Ellah Lakes has been one of the more talked-about small-cap plays on the NGX this year, moving from penny-stock levels under ₦3 to highs near ₦19. But with the rally cooling off, traders are asking: is this just the beginning of a bigger move, or is a deeper correction around the corner?
Quick snapshot
Current price: around ₦12.50 (Investing / NGX).
52-week range: ₦2.85 – ₦19.42 (52-week high hit in mid-August 2025).
Results (12 months to Jul 2025): ₦139.8m revenue, ₦549.8m operating loss, EPS –₦0.14 (loss narrowed vs last year).
Market action: volumes are higher than at the start of the year, with more traders eyeing the name after corporate filings.
Technical picture
Short-term: neutral to slightly bullish — stock is holding the ₦12 zone after pulling back from ₦19 highs. Needs volume to break out again.
Medium-term: still in an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows since Jan 2025). Current move looks like consolidation.
Key levels:
Support: ₦10 (near), ₦7-8 (strong), ₦4 - 5 (last base).
Resistance: ₦15 (near-term), ₦19.4 (52-week high).
Smart money view
The ₦5-8 range earlier in the year was the accumulation zone. Institutions likely bought heavily there.
Big volume spikes happen around NGX filings and earnings news, that’s when the “smart money” tends to move.
Watch out: illiquidity and profit-taking can be sharp in smaller caps like this.
Patterns & Elliott read
The surge from ₦2.85 → ₦19.42 looks like a 5-wave impulsive rally.
Current phase = sideways A–B–C correction or consolidation.
Break above ₦15–₦19 = next impulsive leg higher.
Drop under ₦8 = signals deeper correction toward ₦5.
Fundamentals
Still loss-making: ₦139m revenue but ₦549m operating loss.
Improvement: losses narrowed vs last year — shows some progress.
Risks: plantation execution, weather, funding needs, and FX costs.
Bottom line: this is still a story stock. Price moves more on expectations than actual profits right now.
What’s ahead?
Corporate filings: July 2025 results already published. No dividend expected while still in a narrowing loss.
Events to watch: AGM dates, plantation updates, possible capital raises.
Trade scenarios
Momentum breakout (aggressive):
Buy if daily close > ₦15 with strong volume.
Stop-loss: ₦10.
Targets: ₦19.4 first, then ₦25.
Pullback accumulation (conservative):
Stagger buys at ₦12.5 → ₦10 → ₦8.
Stop-loss: under ₦6.
Targets: ₦15, then ₦19.4.
Trend direction
Medium-term: still uptrend (from ₦3 to ₦19).
Short-term: in a sideways correction/consolidation.
Expected duration: 1–3 months depending on whether ₦8 support holds or ₦15–19 resistance breaks.
Quick checklist before trading
Confirm live price & volume.
Aggressive? Buy breakout above ₦15.
Conservative? Accumulate ₦12.5 → ₦10 → ₦8 with stop < ₦6.
Keep eyes on NGX filings and plantation/expansion news — those are the catalysts.
