UBA remains one of the biggest names on the NGX, and 2025 has been another strong year for the bank. From earnings to dividends to price action, there’s plenty to unpack for both investors and traders.
Market Snapshot
Last close: ₦43.00
52-week range: ₦24.05 – ₦50.51
H1 2025 results: Profit after tax ₦335.5bn; profit before tax ₦388.4bn
Earnings per share (EPS): ₦8.86 (H1)
Dividend: Interim dividend declared (₦0.25k per 50k share), qualification/closure in October 2025
Technical bias: Neutral in the short term, but medium-term trend still bullish
Volume: Higher activity around earnings and dividend announcements
Technical Picture
UBA had a big run from around ₦24 up to ₦50 this year. Since then, the stock has pulled back into the low ₦40s, where it’s now trying to find support.
Support: ₦40 near-term, stronger support at ₦34–₦36. Cycle low at ₦24.
Resistance: ₦48–₦50 (recent highs). If cleared, ₦55–₦60 becomes the next zone to watch.
Indicators like RSI and moving averages are mixed — suggesting consolidation. Weekly charts, however, still show higher highs and higher lows, which means the broader trend is intact.
Smart Money Flow
Big players tend to build positions during dividend and earnings windows, when volumes spike. The ₦34–₦40 range previously acted as an accumulation zone, and if the stock dips back there, institutions may look to reload.
Liquidity is also clustered around corporate events, so NGX disclosures remain key for timing entries.
Chart Patterns and Wave Count
The pullback from ₦50 looks like a flag or corrective move within a bigger uptrend. If support holds and the stock breaks out above ₦48–₦50 with volume, the uptrend could resume.
Elliott wave reading: the move from ₦24 to ₦50 fits a five-wave impulse. The current slide looks corrective (A–B–C). A retrace toward ₦34–₦36 would match common Fibonacci levels (50–61.8%). If that holds, another impulsive leg higher could follow.
Fundamentals
UBA remains fundamentally strong:
Earnings: ₦388.4bn pre-tax profit in H1 2025, ₦335.5bn after tax. Interest income rose by over 30% year-on-year.
Dividends: An interim payout was declared, keeping dividend consistency in place.
Strengths: Strong earnings base, systemically important bank, and a growing African footprint.
Risks: Macro shocks, currency pressures, and cost of funds — the usual banking-sector risks. Some analysts flagged softer PBT versus prior year, but the overall earnings remain solid.
Possible Scenarios
Base case (most likely): Consolidation ends in a continuation higher. A close above ₦48–₦50 could open the door to ₦55–₦60 in the next 1–2 months.
Bearish case: If ₦34–₦36 breaks, price may correct deeper toward ₦28–₦30.
Bullish extension: A fast breakout above ₦50 with strong volume could trigger a sharper run toward ₦65+.
Trade Ideas
1. Trend continuation (medium risk)
Buy on daily close above ₦48 with strong volume.
Stop-loss near ₦40.
Take profit: first at ₦55, then ₦65.
Logic: breakout from consolidation and continuation of uptrend.
2. Pullback accumulation (conservative)
Accumulate gradually between ₦40–₦34.
Stop-loss below ₦30.
Take profit at ₦48 (first) and ₦55 (next).
Logic: buy the dip into the smart money zone with better risk/reward.
Events to Watch
October 2025: Interim dividend qualification and closure date.
Corporate disclosures: Any NGX filings on dividends, board actions, or results. These events usually spike liquidity.
Bottom Line
UBA remains in a solid medium-term uptrend despite the recent pullback. Fundamentals are strong, dividends continue, and the chart still favors higher prices if ₦40 support holds. Traders have two clear paths: buy a confirmed breakout above ₦48, or accumulate patiently on dips toward ₦34–₦40.
Either way, upcoming dividend events and NGX disclosures will be the catalysts that decide how fast the next move comes.
