Universal Insurance Plc has been one of the more interesting stories on the NGX this year. The stock has not only staged a strong recovery but also moved from regulatory suspension back to active trading, giving traders and investors plenty to talk about.
Market Snapshot
- Last close: ₦1.19
- Market cap: ₦19 billion
- Revenue (ttm): ₦18.3 billion
- Net income (ttm): ₦2.32 billion
- Earnings per share (EPS): ₦0.15
- Price-to-earnings ratio (P/E): 8.2
- 52-week range: ₦0.31 – ₦1.60 (up roughly 80% year-to-date)
- Momentum: Neutral, with RSI sitting around 51
- Next expected event: Earnings/financial report around October 29, 2025 (to be confirmed)
Technical Picture
After a big rally earlier this year, the share price is now cooling off and consolidating between ₦1.10–₦1.25. Medium-term, the trend is still slightly bullish, but resistance is heavy at ₦1.40–₦1.60.
- Support zones: ₦1.00 and deeper at ₦0.80
- Resistance levels: ₦1.40 and ₦1.60
A breakout above ₦1.40 with strong volume could set the stage for a new push higher. A slip below ₦1.00 risks dragging the stock back toward ₦0.80.
Smart Money Flow
Volume has been higher around corporate announcements, showing that institutions are paying attention. The ₦0.80–₦1.00 range has acted as a strong accumulation zone. That’s where “smart money” tends to reload when price dips.
The risk? Universal has a history of delayed filings that once got it suspended. This makes disclosure timing and liquidity something to watch carefully.
Patterns and Price Structure
The chart shows a breakout earlier in the year from a long accumulation base. Right now, price is boxed inside a rectangle between ₦1.00–₦1.40.
Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the impulsive rally from the ₦0.31 low may be complete, and the stock is now in a corrective A–B–C phase. The next move will be decided by whether the consolidation breaks up or down.
Fundamentals
Universal Insurance has made a solid comeback. In the first half of 2025, it posted a profit of about ₦970.7 million, compared to a loss in the previous year. Gross written premiums also climbed, pointing to improving operations.
With EPS at ₦0.15 and a P/E ratio of 8, the stock looks reasonably priced. The main concerns are sector-wide risks, plus the company’s past issues with regulatory compliance and corporate governance.
Key Events to Note
- September 2025: Trading suspension by NGX over late filings, later lifted.
- August 2025: H1 results released, showing a strong turnaround.
- October 2025: Possible reporting date (check NGX notices for confirmation).
These events matter because every filing or corporate action can swing both liquidity and price.
Possible Scenarios
- Bullish case: Break above ₦1.40 on strong volume → rally toward ₦1.60 and maybe ₦2.00.
- Bearish case: Drop below ₦1.00 → test ₦0.80, with risk of further downside if sentiment worsens.
Timeframe: weeks to a few months, though news events can move things much faster.
Trade Ideas
1. Aggressive Breakout Play
- Enter if price closes above ₦1.40 with strong volume.
- Stop-loss around ₦1.00.
- Take profit at ₦1.60 first, then ₦2.00 if momentum continues.
2. Conservative Pullback Buy
- Accumulate gradually between ₦1.00–₦0.80.
- Stop-loss below ₦0.70.
- Targets: ₦1.40 (first sell point), ₦1.60+ (extended).
Bottom Line
Universal Insurance has turned profitable again, and the market has rewarded it with a big rally this year. The stock is currently in a pause zone, waiting for its next big move. Traders have two clear options: wait for a confirmed breakout above ₦1.40, or position conservatively on dips toward ₦1.00–₦0.80.
The company’s history with NGX suspensions is a reminder that corporate news flow is as important as the charts. Keep an eye on upcoming disclosures — they’ll likely decide the next direction.
