First City Monument Bank (FCMB) has released its earnings and cash flow forecast for the fourth quarter ending 31 December 2025, signaling strong profitability and a solid liquidity outlook despite cost pressures.
Earnings Forecast (Q4 2025)
Gross Earnings: ₦265.2 billion
Interest Income: ₦231.8 billion
Interest Expense: ₦116.1 billion
Net Interest Income: ₦115.8 billion
Non-Interest Income Breakdown:
FX Earnings: ₦3.7 billion
Securities Trading: ₦4.4 billion
Contingent Income: ₦1.2 billion
Transaction Commissions: ₦20.4 billion
Other Income: ₦3.7 billion
This brings net operating income to ₦149.1 billion. After factoring in loan loss provisions of ₦14.1 billion and operating expenses of ₦69.1 billion, FCMB projects a profit before tax of ₦65.9 billion and a profit after tax of ₦58.8 billion.
Cash Flow Forecast (Q4 2025)
Net Cash from Operating Activities: ₦109.1 billion
Net Cash from Investing Activities: ₦71.3 billion
Net Cash from Financing Activities: (₦1.8 billion)
Overall, FCMB expects a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of ₦178.6 billion, raising liquidity from ₦674.3 billion at the start of the quarter to ₦852.9 billion by December 2025.
Analytical View – What It Means for Investors
The forecast reflects resilient earnings momentum, powered by strong interest income and transaction-driven revenue streams. The substantial cash build-up enhances FCMB’s ability to fund growth, strengthen its balance sheet, and navigate regulatory or market shocks.
However, investors should note:
Loan loss provisions (₦14.1bn) point to continuing credit risks.
Operating expenses (₦69.1bn) remain a drag on margins, underscoring the need for tighter cost control.
Likely Market Impact
Short-term (Q4 2025 trading): The upbeat forecast may trigger positive sentiment on NGX, attracting buying interest from investors seeking banking sector exposure.
Medium-term (2026 outlook): If FCMB delivers close to its projections, the stock could enjoy a re-rating, especially given the projected ₦58.8bn profit.
Risks: Rising operating costs and loan loss provisions remain the biggest factors that could cap upside potential.
Bottom line: FCMB is signaling strong financial health heading into year-end, with one of the highest projected cash balances in recent years. This positions the bank favorably for dividend stability and long-term growth.
