Their negative FCF from 2024 - 2021 = 498m - 508m - none - 3380m. This is what they have been burning into investment on yearly basis
Cash and cash equivalent from 2024 to 2021 = 230m - 916m - 237m - 323m. So they only have 6 months cash left to survive 2024, in other wodrs they need to raise loan or dilute more shares to raise capital to keep surviving.
Digging deeper, i noticed they did RI in 2024 and also did a private placement to raise more cash. Probably will be a convertible loan to equity in future.
Since we expect ellah lakes to not generate anything meaningful until 2028 and burning an average of 500m per year, we expect her to raise capital mostly through stock issuance that will last her for atleast 3 years = #1.5b worth of stocks
At #3/share of ellah lakes, an extra 750m shares would be issued to the OS of 2.75b = 3.5b by 2028
Debt raised from 2024 to 2021 = none -38m - 29m -940m
Issuance of stocks from 2024 - 2021 = 2186m - 1187m - 100m - 2200m
From our above calculation, Future Market cap by 2035 = 830b
OS by 2028 - 2035 = 3.5b
Implied price by 2035 when a venture capitalist wants to sell his shares and pull out = #237 / shares.
Can they really make it?
A #1m invested now in ellah lakes to worth 237m by 2035? 10 years from now
a 100k invested now to get 24m in 2035, is it possible?
These valuations were based on my analysis in January, 2025
