VFD Group Plc is a Nigerian investment company based in Ikoyi, Lagos. It was founded in 2009 and has since grown into a diversified financial services ecosystem. What this means is that the company is not focused on only one business — instead, it invests in and operates many businesses across fintech, banking, asset management, lending, real estate, hospitality, and capital markets.
In simpler terms, think of VFD as a company that has built a basket of businesses — some generate regular fees (like financial services), while others depend on investment income (like gains from shares, bonds, or portfolio companies). This makes the business flexible but also tied to how well the financial markets are doing.
Current Market Data
Share Price: Around ₦11.90 (as of August 20, 2025; price changes daily).
Market Cap: Roughly ₦90 billion.
Shares Outstanding: 7.6–7.7 billion.
52-Week Range: Between ₦5.91 and ₦19.00.
Recent Dividend: About ₦2.50 per share was paid in 2025 (always check corporate notices for the exact figure).
This shows that the stock has seen some big swings in the past year, almost doubling and then pulling back — meaning investors need to expect volatility.
Technical View (Price Action & Trends)
Looking at how the stock has traded on charts:
VFD Group’s price shot up strongly in 2024 into early 2025, but has since cooled off and is moving in a wide sideways range.
Right now, it is neither at its lowest nor highest point, but sitting in the middle.
The trend is neutral-to-bullish — in other words, it is holding well above its past lows, but it still needs to break above resistance levels to fully confirm another rally.
For traders, this means it’s best to buy on dips or wait for breakouts with strong trading volume.
Smart Money Read (Market Structure & Liquidity)
The stock made a big re-rating rally in 2024, driven by strong investment results.
Liquidity (where buy/sell orders cluster):
On the upside, many stop-losses and profit targets sit around ₦15 to ₦19.
On the downside, a lot of protective stops are near ₦7 to ₦9 (previous consolidation).
This means the stock could move quickly toward either zone once institutions push volume into the market.
Chart Patterns
The chart looks like a big advance followed by a consolidation box (trading sideways in a band).
If it breaks above the box with strong volume, it could rally sharply again.
If it falls below the support, it risks a deeper correction.
This is why knowing the key entry and stop levels (see trade plan below) is important.
Fundamentals (Company Health)
2024 Results: VFD recorded a huge improvement — net investment income nearly doubled (about ₦59bn) and profits swung back into strong positive territory after a previous loss.
2025 Interim Results: Still showing solid earnings momentum.
TTM (Trailing Twelve Months): ₦76bn in revenue, ₦8bn in net income, EPS around ₦1.10. P/E ratio 10–11x, which is not expensive compared to many other NGX stocks.
Key Point: VFD’s profits depend heavily on investment income and portfolio revaluations. This means if financial markets are strong, earnings rise fast — but if markets fall, profits can drop just as quickly.
Catalysts to Watch
Quarterly results – especially updates on investment income.
Portfolio revaluations/disposals – since these directly boost or drag profits.
Macro factors – interest rates, FX stability, and Nigerian asset market performance.
Corporate actions – dividends, capital raises, or acquisitions.
Long-Only Trade Plan (Concrete Levels)
⚠️ Reminder: VFD is a volatile stock, so risk small.
A) Core Swing Long (Preferred)
Entry Zone: Buy gradually between ₦10.50 – ₦11.50.
Add on Confirmation: Above ₦12.50 – ₦13.50 if price closes strong with volume.
Stop-Loss: ₦8.20 (close below here cancels the bullish idea).
Take Profits:
TP1: ₦14.50
TP2: ₦18.50 – ₦19.50 (52-week highs)
TP3: ₦22 – ₦24 (if strong results continue).
B) Buy-the-Dip Strategy
Entry: ₦8.50 – ₦9.50 (only if price shows demand signs like strong buying candles).
Stop: ₦7.40.
Targets: ₦11.50 → ₦14.50.
Risk Tip: Move stop-loss to breakeven after hitting first profit target. Always scale out gradually.
Conclusion
VFD Group has turned around strongly since 2024 thanks to big gains in investment income. The business model means it can grow fast when financial markets are strong, but it can also fall back if conditions worsen.
Bullish scenario: If price closes above ₦14.50–₦15.00 with volume, the next rally could test old highs.
Bearish flip: If it breaks below ₦8.20, the constructive view fails.
For now, the stock is constructively bullish while above key support — but expect volatility.
Note: This analysis does not constitute financial advice. It is based on publicly available data and provided for educational purposes only. You are welcome to share your views on this post, as this is an open public discussion forum.
